|
 The tug-of-war pitting President Jacob Zuma and Julius Malema certainly has more drama than soap opera.
The fast-evolving power dynamics within South Africa’s ANC in the past three years are hard to keep up with.
Unceremoniously ousted from state and party presidency in 2008, Mbeki took a position not to actively participate in local politics but now appears to be the darling of an ANC Youth League that was so pivotal in his demise just a few years back.
And judging by the not insignificant applause that greeted the announcement of his name or appearance of his smiling face on the giant screen at the ANC Centenary celebrations in Bloemfontein in early January, South Africa might be prepared to give the second post-apartheid president another political role.
Since leaving office, Mbeki has largely busied himself with mediation efforts in other parts of Africa and his work in Cote d’Ivoire and The Sudan has not gone unnoticed.
Now it seems the Youth League that very nearly destroyed him is hankering after the kind of leadership he is displaying across Africa on topical issues and seeking to have it applied domestically.
But is it conceivable that Mbeki can bounce back as a figure of national political importance in South Africa once more?
A Short Background.
Things started unravelling in 2005 when Mbeki, who was then Head of State and Government, removed Jacob Zuma from his post as Deputy President of South Africa after the latter was implicated in a corruption scandal.
Zuma, however, remained ANC deputy president and his supporters – chiefly among the party’s Youth League ? immediately unleashed a campaign to demonise Mbeki.
The belief was that Mbeki wanted to sabotage Zuma’s bid to take over leadership of the ANC and of South Africa.
That year it appeared to be pouring for Zuma.
After losing the national Vice Presidency, rape charges were brought up against him and many people believed that the machinery of the state was being brought to full force to diminish Zuma’s political ambitions.
And Mbeki, who told the SABC in early 2006 that he had no intention to seek to alter the constitution to allow him a third bite at the cherry as state President, then sought to perpetuate his stay at the helm of the ANC.
Zuma’s supporters made it clear they would challenge Mbeki and in December 2007 at the tense Polokwane conference, Mbeki lost the party leadership to his deputy.
Kgalema Motlanthe became caretaker state President until the 2009 general election saw Zuma taking over.
The Malema Factor
At the centre of this storm pitting Mbeki and Zuma was none other than ANC Youth League leader, Julius Malema.
The fiery pro-nationalisation politician made it clear they would not back Mbeki and that the youth were prepared to kill for Zuma.
Historically, the Youth League has been a pivotal element in not just South African, but also continental politics.
The ANCYL was established in 1944 by Nick Gombart, Ashley Peter Mda, Nelson Mandela, Walter Sisulu and Oliver Tambo – all of them stalwarts of the liberation agenda.
The formation of this wing breathed real life into a movement that was starting to stagnate and by the end of the 1940s it had essentially gained control of the entire party.
In fact, the ANCYL under Mandela and Tambo forced out party president Dr Alfred Xuma after he dithered on taking up arms against apartheid and referred to the youth wing agitators as overzealous “young boys”.
That in itself set an operational and political precedence that the ANC grappled with in the case of Thabo Mbeki in his battle with Zuma (Mbeki himself was active in the Youth League from 1956).
And it seems the scenario is playing itself out again in the Zuma-Malema battle today.
In 1959, many ANC youths left the party to join the more militant Pan Africanist Congress.
Both parties were to be banned a year later but their youth wings carried on the anti-apartheid struggle from underground until the 1990 reforms forced on F W de Klerk allowed freer political expression in South Africa.
This saw the official re-emergence of the ANCYL under Peter Mokaba.
In 2005, Fikile Mbalula succeeded Malusi Gigaba (who went on to become Home Affairs Deputy Minister) and the ANCYL found itself returning to its politically militant roots.
The radical Mbalula moved on to bigger things as Sports Minister and was succeeded by a Julius Malema who appears to be somehow more radical than his predecessors.
And his barely veiled warnings to the ANC leadership are backed up by historical precedent: they did it to Xuma, they did it to Mbeki, and they say they can do it to Zuma too.
Only this time, Mbeki could find himself as the unlikely powerbroker.
Courting Mbeki
Mbeki is not exactly in political wilderness.
Active politicians call upon him as an advisor and he has continued with his international diplomacy, which by the way has largely been successful in bringing about peaceful political solutions in Zimbabwe and The Sudan, among other places.
Malema, however, seems to want to make him a powerbroker, probably believing he can leverage Mbeki’s intellect, diplomacy and experience against Zuma at the ANC elective conference set for December 2012.
“Mbeki is the best leader the ANC has ever produced.
“There are those who hated him with a passion but forgot that Mbeki, during his leadership, had produced a two-thirds majority during elections,” Malema has stated.
He has told other media outlets, “Those who hate Mbeki are jealous of his achievements.
“He was the most educated and clever (ANC leader).
“The only problem with Mbeki was failing to allow the leadership the ANC to decide on who they wanted in the leadership, and for wanting a third term in leading the organisation.
“Apart from that he was the best and I respect him for that.”
Unconfirmed reports from South Africa indicate a meeting between the two sides could have happened or will happen soon.
Speaking on SAfm radio, Julius Malema said the ANCYL would ask for a meeting with Mbeki to convince him that he should become more visible and vocal.
Malema said Mbeki’s decision not to comment on domestic policy “is depriving us of that intellectual wealth”.
“I wish Mbeki would reconsider his decision not to participate,” Malema said.
League spokesman, Floyd Shivambu, added: “We will seek an audience with him ... currently he is benefiting other countries outside South Africa.
“He expresses opinions about Libya etcetera but never comments about the local dynamic, be it political or economic.”
Media reports claim Mbeki directed the Youth League to get approval for the meeting from the ANC leadership.
Mbeki’s spokesman, Mukoni Ratshitanga, has dismissed the reports but has pointed out: “The Former President has indicated that he is willing to meet any South African provided that he has time.
“The request will be considered like other requests.”
The ANC has not commented.
Emerging From a Shell
Maybe it is coincidence but Mbeki does appear to be increasingly speaking his mind on domestic political developments.
The South African media have quoted him “slamming” Advocate Willem Heath for stating Mbeki was behind Zuma’s corruption and rape charges.
City Press commented, “Heath’s sudden departure after 17 days in office as head of the Special Investigating Unit was seen as a vindication of Mbeki’s long-standing denial of conspiring against Zuma;
“He appeared at the ANC’s 100-year bash in Bloemfontein … to thunderous applause; and
“ANC Youth League leader Julius Malema asked him to get more involved in domestic politics.”
The paper further reported that it understood Mbeki would “not seek an active leadership position in the ANC, but he could be influential in the party in the lead-up to the ANC’s elective conference in Mangaung in December by advising party leaders on leadership matters and playing a mediation role between the warring factions”.
It went on; “Ten sources ranging from ANC National Executive Committee (NEC) members to provincial leaders, business people and ANC lobbyists told City Press they could see Mbeki returning to play a role in the party, but they differed over the role the former president would play.
“These include: An advisory or mediatory role as renewed infighting over the party’s leadership threatens to tear it apart;
“A rallying point for support to topple Zuma because Mbeki is the ‘better devil you know’;
“A ‘mascot’ for the new coalition of the wounded led by ANC Youth League leader Julius Malema, with Zuma as the ‘common enemy’, but it’s unlikely that Mbeki would allow this; or
“A candidate for ANC chairperson or an alternative president should Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe decline to contest.”
However, ANC veteran Pallo Jordan has said Mbeki will not contest any positions because he had already “reached the top of the tree” – though he would welcome Mbeki’s return.
What is the plot?
The general agreement is that Mbeki will not seek election to the post of party president or chairman.
However, the party youth want him to help lobby for a leadership change.
They want Motlanthe to again act as a caretaker President (this time as Zuma’s replacement); they want Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma as VP; Tokyo Sexwale as chair; Fikile Mbalula as the secretary-general and Thandi Modise as his deputy; and Trevor Manuel as the treasurer-general.
It remains to be seen if Motlanthe will accept such a plan, and more so if Mbeki has the stomach for a fight that can only have one of two outcomes: make the ANC much stronger or create fissures much deeper and wider than those already existing.
A political analyst with the Institute of Security Studies, Khaya Dlanga, has been quoted saying Malema’s bold declarations mean he is prepared for all-out war with Zuma.
But the bigger question is: Is this what Mbeki wants?
The son of influential anti-apartheid leader Govan, Mbeki has always been in the thick of politics.
He was imprisoned, forced into exile, did military training in the then Soviet Union, and has had his fair share of bruising political battles, not least the one with Zuma.
Is there enough fight in him for another battle, one that could make or break the ANC?
It is unlikely that Mbeki will be a willing architect in the weakening of a party that has been his whole life.
Malema might have to try harder to get him publicly on his side. -Mabasa Sasa
|
LegalbriefAfrica opinions 
